BETA Avian Flu Risk Index (AFRI)

30-DAY CHANGE

+2.17%

HIGHEST RISK CATEGORY

CAUTIOUSLY WATCHING

MARKET CONTRIBUTORS

INDEX CONSTITUENTS

WHO DECLARES H5N1 PHEIC BY 2030 METACULUS | WEIGHT: 15%

66%

RESOLVES YES IF WHO DECLARES H5N1 A "PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY OF INTERNATIONAL CONCERN" BEFORE JAN 1, 2030.

HUMAN-TO-HUMAN H5N1 TRANSMISSION BEFORE 2026 METACULUS | WEIGHT: 18%

18%

RESOLVES YES IF CDC REPORTS AT LEAST ONE CASE OF HUMAN-TO-HUMAN H5N1 SPREAD GLOBALLY BEFORE JAN 1, 2026.

US HHS DECLARES H5 PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY BEFORE 2026 METACULUS | WEIGHT: 10%

10%

RESOLVES YES IF US DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES DECLARES A PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY FOR H5 AVIAN INFLUENZA BEFORE JAN 1, 2026.

10,000+ H5 AVIAN INFLUENZA CASES IN US BY END OF 2025 METACULUS | WEIGHT: 5%

RESOLVES YES IF CDC REPORTS 10,000+ CUMULATIVE CASES OF H5 AVIAN INFLUENZA IN THE US BEFORE JAN 1, 2026.

BIRD FLU PANDEMIC BEFORE AUGUST 2025 POLYMARKET | WEIGHT: 12%

6.5%

RESOLVES YES IF WHO DECLARES H5N1 (BIRD FLU) A PANDEMIC BY JULY 31, 2025.

BIRD FLU DECLARED PHEIC BEFORE APRIL 2025 POLYMARKET | WEIGHT: 8%

0.3%

RESOLVES YES IF WHO OFFICIALLY DECLARES H5N1 A PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY OF INTERNATIONAL CONCERN (PHEIC) BY MARCH 31, 2025.

100+ BIRD FLU CASES IN US BEFORE APRIL 2025 POLYMARKET | WEIGHT: 8%

0.45%

RESOLVES YES IF THERE ARE 100+ CONFIRMED CASES OF H5 BIRD FLU IN HUMANS IN THE US ACCORDING TO CDC BY MARCH 31, 2025.

BIRD FLU VACCINE IN 2025 POLYMARKET | WEIGHT: 10%

16%

RESOLVES YES IF ANY VACCINE FOR HUMANS INOCULATING AGAINST H5N1 RECEIVES FULL FDA APPROVAL BETWEEN JAN 1 - DEC 31, 2025.

USDA LICENSE H5 VACCINE IN DAIRY COWS BY JULY 2025 METACULUS | WEIGHT: 4%

86%

RESOLVES YES IF USDA-CVB GRANTS FULL OR CONDITIONAL LICENSE FOR H5 VACCINE FOR DAIRY CATTLE BEFORE JULY 1, 2025.

MORE THAN 50 BIRD FLU CASES IN 2025 KALSHI | WEIGHT: 10%

56%

RESOLVES YES IF THE NUMBER OF H5N1 CASES IN 2025 IS ABOVE 50.

INDEX METHODOLOGY

THE AVIAN FLU RISK INDEX (AFRI) AGGREGATES PROBABILITY ESTIMATES FROM LEADING PREDICTION MARKETS TO CREATE A COMPOSITE RISK ASSESSMENT.

WEIGHTING FACTORS:

TIME HORIZON: NEAR-TERM EVENTS WEIGHTED HIGHER
IMPACT SEVERITY: PANDEMIC/EMERGENCY DECLARATIONS WEIGHTED HIGHER
MARKET LIQUIDITY: MARKETS WITH HIGHER TRADING VOLUME GIVEN PREFERENCE
CROSS-PLATFORM DIVERSITY: BALANCED REPRESENTATION ACROSS METACULUS, POLYMARKET, AND KALSHI

INDEX CALCULATION:

AFRI = WEIGHTED SUM OF CONSTITUENT MARKET PROBABILITIES

INDEX IS RECALCULATED DAILY BASED ON LATEST MARKET DATA

DISCLAIMER: THIS INDEX IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING IN PREDICTION MARKETS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK. MONETARY VALUES SHOWN ARE SIMULATED AND DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE. CONSULT MEDICAL AUTHORITIES FOR ACTUAL PUBLIC HEALTH GUIDANCE.